Hello together,
in this self-experiment I would like to find out whether warrants can be an alternative to lottery playing for stock-exchange-savvy contemporaries like me. All key data for the experiment can be found in part 1 of this series.
After first with RIB software I was able to achieve a profit of almost 40% With the second Trade All-In.
First of all: This self-test does not claim to be complete. While I suspect that capital will tend to be close to 0, similar to lottery games, a win can of course occur.
This is then not representative.
I advise beginners not to buy derivatives of any kind, which are usually not secured against a default of the issuing bank.
Note: In the case of derivatives, the bank usually wins. Possible purchases from me are not a recommendation.
Evaluation of the trade Bechtle AG
I chose Trade 2 as the underlying value of the bechtle AG share.
This stand at the start at just under 88 €, my option note call with base price 80.00 € corresponding to 1.76 €.
The Bechtle course after the start. Source: Degiro.
As you can see, it has been steadily upwards since then, apart from small frightening moments, so that my price target at approx. 104€ could already be achieved before the publication of the quarterly figures for Q3. However, the duration of the warrant until Q4/2020 would have given me enough time to sit out a negative price movement.
For me, of course, it‘s great that I didn’t have to wait that long, so I can go back to looking for the next underlying.
Price history of the warrant, which is almost in line with the underlying due to the long maturity and because the warrant was in the money. Source: Degiro
Settlement of trade Bechtle AG
19/08/2019
Purchase 54 at 1.76 EUR each (DE000HZ0F4F2): EUR -95.04
Transaction fees: EUR –2.11 €
08/11/2019
Sale 54 at 2.87 EUR each (DE000HZ0F4F2): EUR 154.98
Transaction fees: EUR -2.18
Net profit: €55.65 (+ 58.50%).
Current status in the warrant depot
Open positions
No
Balance
€100.00
Closed positions
Call on RIB Software. Profit by cost: +€15.86
Call on Bechtle. Profit by cost: +€55.65
Realized gains/losses: +€71.51
Note: All winnings will go to the charity depot.
What’s next?
First of all, I am pleased to be able to transfer the value above 100€ in the clearing account back to the charity depot.
Now, of course, a new underlying must be found. As soon as I have found something promising, this series will continue.
Why do I run an experiment whose expected value is 0?
Why not? Even at a pub evening or a visit to the cinema or my money tends to be less. I think I can afford this fun.
[the_ad id=”1996″]